The results of a new Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor poll indicate that 50 percent of registered voters would definitely or probably vote for someone other than Barack Obama if the presidential election were held today. Only 40 percent of respondents said they would definitely or probably vote to reelect President Obama.
The poll, conducted between March 4 and 8 by the communications firm Financial Dynamics, surveyed 1,000 adults and had a margin of error of +/–3.1 percent.
Approaching the two remote ends of the sample curve, 22 percent said they would definitely vote for Obama, while 35 percent said they would definitely vote for someone else.
While the numbers look bleak for the administration, the National Journal, one of the poll’s underwriters, was quick to point out that surveys conducted this far ahead of an election are subject to serious flux.
Still, Obama has not crested the 50 percent mark in any Heartland Monitor poll since September 2009, and his current approval rating stands at 49 percent while 44 percent disapprove of the job he is doing. This makes the poll roughly consistent with the Real Clear Politics aggregate of polls, which has the president’s approval rating at 49.1 percent abd his disapproval rating at 46.1 percent.
For better or worse, the polling numbers were released on the same day as news that the Barack H. Obama Elementary School in Asbury Park, New Jersey, will close due to low enrollment. The school closure is undeniably the result of factors unrelated to the president’s poll standings or job performance, but the loss of so great an honor has to sting a man burdened with Obama’s rather sizable ego. In fact, it has to smart in the face of so few takers in this year’s contest among high schools to have the president deliver a commencement address.
For a man who, according to some, was a lock to have his likeness carved alongside those of Lincoln and Washington on Mt. Rushmore, even a second term at this point has got to seem like small potatoes.
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