The disturbance that is producing the heavy rain this morning over the New York City metropolitan area is rapidly moving to the northeast and weakening. While showers will remain a threat through 2 PM this afternoon, the heaviest rain will be over for the New York City metropolitan area by 10 AM this morning and is already finished for much of southern New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania.
The disturbance associated with this heavy rain is rapidly weakening to the point that the low pressure system associated with this heavy rain is a 1020 MB low, which is not very impressive at all. The strongest low pressure system is located over the southern Hudson Bay with a 1002 MB low, which isn’t very impressive either. However, this round of heavy rain will create some minor flash flooding problems in locations already stressed by previous rain events, specially around the Passaic River in northeastern New Jersey.
Skies will clear this afternoon with temperatures rebounding into the 50’s for highs, which is about near normal. High pressure, centered over the southern Mississippi Valley this morning, will move towards the Southeast coast by this evening setting up a warm southwesterly wind at all levels of the atmosphere for Thursday and Friday. With high pressure in control, scattered clouds and dry conditions can be expected through Friday afternoon. Temperatures will average well above normal with upper 50’s to mid 60’s for highs on Thursday and mid 60’s to lower 70’s for highs on Friday! Locations most likely to see lower 70’s will be the eastern portions of the New York City metropolitan area down through much of interior central and southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania. Locations near the coast will be slightly cooler due to the influence of the Atlantic Ocean.
A weakening cold front will move through the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday night with a few scattered showers and a shift in the winds to the northwest. At this time, the cold front is not very impressive and I do not expect any thunderstorms with the passage of the cold front. The showers will quickly exit on Saturday morning followed by high pressure producing scattered clouds Saturday through Monday morning. The Canadian high pressure will transport a Polar/Pacific air mass into the region leading to high temperatures back to near to slightly above normal levels in the 50’s to lower 60’s for highs and 20’s to mid 30’s for lows.
A warm front will move through the region on Monday night with scattered showers and a period of steady rainfall through early Tuesday morning. High pressure over the Southeast will build into the northern Mid Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday with very warm weather conditions once again. Highs will rebound into the 60’s throughout the region, potentially touching 70 degrees once again in some locations.
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