A stalled frontal boundary to the south of the region will begin to lift north as a warm front through this afternoon, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front will also bring a warm and humid air mass for much of the coming week, with thunderstorms on Thursday as a cold front approaches.
Here is the complete forecast for Albany and the Capital Region of upstate New York:
TODAY – The stalled out frontal boundary to our south will begin to lift north in the morning hours, passing through Albany by this afternoon with a chance of scattered showers becoming more numerous. The front could become quite active late in the day and into this evening as a few thunderstorms will fire and some locally heavy downpours are likely. High temperatures will reach the mid 60’s.
TUESDAY – The warm front will lift north of the entire region, placing it in the warm sector with a strong southerly flow allowing an increasingly warm and humid air mass to develop. High temperatures will reach the mid 70’s with a south wind at 5 to 15 mph. Some instability will also develop in the atmosphere and a weak vort max will cross the region, providing enough lift for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening, with some locally heavy downpours possible once again.
WEDNESDAY – Another warm and somewhat muggy day is expected as the region remains in the warm sector and high temperatures will approach the mid to upper 70’s, perhaps even around 80 degrees in southern areas. A cold front will begin to approach late in the day with more scattered showers and thunderstorms developing.
OUTLOOK – On Thursday, the cold front will work across the region and it is expected that enough instability and dynamics will be present for some severe thunderstorms to develop with the frontal passage. A squall line is also possible, with damaging winds and some hail, but it is too early to assess the exact severe weather threat at this time, although the Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire region in a “slight risk” for severe weather. We will have one last warm day with temperatures in the mid 70’s before the front moves through on Thursday evening and temperatures drop. Cooler weather will return on Friday with high temperatures in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s and a few scattered showers possible as the upper level trough moves through. High pressure will build in by next weekend, with fair and seasonable weather conditions developing.
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